Obama So Far

January 20, 2010 is around the corner, and Obama is fast approaching the end of his first year in office. A year is a short time politically--just half an election cycle for our shortest tenured elected officials in the house of representatives, and merely the first out of four in Barack Obama's own presidency. Yet in that short time, a great deal has occurred with President Obama at the helm. If nothing else, Obama has indeed brought Change to the United States and to our collective identity as Americans. Some good, some bad, and even more still indeterminate. Yet as historians look back on the crucial year of 2009, there are a few themes that will likely emerge.


War

In the past year, the face of the war has changed dramatically. Iraq is much quieter, although there is some continuing violence. Even more importantly, many US troops have come home or redeployed. In some way, the left finally got what it wanted under Bush--for us to leave Iraq. Yet the battleground of 2010 is no better. Obama is truly a wartime president.

Afghanistan is the new hotspot for U.S. military activity. A broad swath of the public--and an even bigger percentage of Obama's own supporters--are against continued war. If the left has not been fully satisfied, it is because the fundamental stance of the United States, globally, is no less war-like than it was under Bush. The plan under Bush had always been to go to Afghanistan next, and that's why we're embroiled there in the first place. In contrast, perhaps today's hawks are pleased that Obama has the courage to fight a necessary war against people who are genuinely trying to destroy America. Geopolitical stability and domestic security are at risk, and there is a pragmatic bent to Obama's decision to surge troops in Afghanistan. Time will only tell if Obama's strategy proves fruitful, in Afghanistan, Pakistan and the mountainous border between them.

Yet Obama has brought about one change: the language of political discourse. Obama did, in at least some way, end the "War on Terror." He simply stopped using the phrase, preferring "Overseas Contingency Option." But will a rose by any other name smell as sweet--or as sour?

Perhaps this sense of nuance is itself Obama's most telling contribution to date. His outlook is starkly at odds with those of his predecessor. In Obama, we have a leader who understands the world in a new way, articulated through memes such as Change, Diplomacy, Peace, Healthcare, Education, Cultural Understanding, Family Values, and of course Hope. This was a clear departure from Bush, who along with Cheney focused on words and phrases like War on Terror, Stay the Course, Axis of Evil, Osama Bin Laden, Homeland Security, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Undisclosed Locations, Muslim Extremists, and Misunderestimated.


Whether Obama's ideology improves America's position in the world remains to be seen, but a true test may be close at hand. In light of the recent Underwear Bomber attack, Yemen has also been proposed as a potential target for US operations, or at least attention. Policy analysts and pundits have suggested that he was "Radicalized" in Sana'a, Yemen's capital. One can imagine Bush sending in an aircraft carrier and 20,000 ground troops after an impressive "Shock and Awe" campaign--Obama's reaction will hopefully be more restrained. The President must now direct the U.S. approach to Yemen, and the consequences of his choice will have far-reaching effects, both in what they accomplish, and what they signify about the United States as an international actor. How Obama reacts to information like the Yemen Connection will be pivotal in the course of his Presidency.

And Peace?
Despite the U.S.'s outwardly bellicose stance (two foreign wars and a massive military complex), Obama received a Nobel Peace Prize his first year in office. The committee who gave Obama a Peace Prize clearly bought into the President's core campaign issue of Hope. They believed so hard that they were willing to grant him a prize normally reserved for people who have already obtained "Results." Maybe the Nobel committee believed that Obama is himself a meaningful result, with a nod towards his groundbreaking election as the first African American President. Or maybe they were simply convinced he would achieve great things in his lifetime. More likely, they recognized the critical state of the world and the importance of Obama's work to restore domestic and international balance--they held out hope that the Prize will have some impact, however small, in swaying a hugely important international actor towards peace.


Healthcare

As a major healthcare overhaul is on the verge of being enacted by Congress, Obama has come close to achieving what was already far overdue in President Bill Clinton's failed inaugural-year attempt. The healthcare bill will bring with it change for the better, although it falls short of Obama's broader ambition. Perhaps most disappointing for the President is the absence of a Public Option due to propaganda from conservatives: rhetoric about "Death Panels," a modern-day Red Scare, and a strange xenophobia where people were in deep fear of somehow being like France or England or Canada. All this in the face of evidence that citizens of those countries spend less of their income on healthcare and live healthier lives.

The future will likely lead to continued socialization in healthcare--some form of public option will eventually be in effect in the United States. The historians of this future era may note that while opposition to Universal Healthcare slowed its advance, Obama nonetheless pushed through a significant reform that is a significant step towards that goal.


The Economic Crisis

The total collapse of the housing market and the resulting financial crisis may have began under his predecessor, but its full impact has been felt primarily under President Obama. The crisis is largely a result of collateralized debt obligations and the voluminous trade in mortgage backed securities. Many believe that this resulted from improper evaluation by the Ratings Agencies and irresponsible trading by major investment banks. Yet there was a massive bailout of these financial institutions; some were simply "Too Big to Fail". Months later, and the financial industry is again doing well, granting its traditionally huge bonuses. Yet the population as a whole is still doing quite poorly. Foreclosures have barely slowed, there is vast unemployment, healthcare is far too expensive, higher education is becoming too expensive, and the United States is in hock up to its eyeballs in foreign debt.

Still, promising signs in several sectors indicate we might be moving towards a recovery. Whether it is sustainable will hinge upon President Obama's oft-criticized economic policy. Yet there may be a play in his back pocket. One of the platforms that Obama campaigned on (albeit one that has largely been out of public discourse since) is Energy. Then-Senator Obama argued that we should promote private sector growth in green technology, leveraging its potential to bring overseas manufacturing jobs back home and reduce dependence on foreign oil. One promising avenue back to a healthy economy may be to highlight this theme as a vision for the future. Yet the fight will be hard, and given Obama's compromised success in healthcare, it remains to be seen whether he is up to the challenge.

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Obama still has a long way to go in his first term. He will not face another election for nearly three more years. Even with the outrageously early campaigning that has become the norm in recent election cycles, he has two more years to advance his agenda. Obama has spent a great deal of political capital on pushing through his healthcare plan, and public support for yet another war-time president is waning. Yet we must remember that Obama is a young President--not in his age, not anymore as those signs of grey begin to take hold--but barely a quarter into his term. The core of his legacy is as yet unwritten. Hope springs eternal.